Private households’ preferences for alternative fuel vehicles in Germany : an empirically founded analysis of adoption decisions, willingness-to-pay, and policy scenarios

Hackbarth, André Claude; Madlener, Reinhard (Thesis advisor); Wentzel, Daniel (Thesis advisor)

1. Auflage. - Aachen : E.ON Energy Research Center, RWTH Aachen University (2022)
Book, Dissertation / PhD Thesis

In: E.ON Energy Research Center ; FCN, Future energy consumer needs and behavior 102
Page(s)/Article-Nr.: 1 Online-Ressource : Diagramme

Dissertation, RWTH Aachen University, 2021

Abstract

Road transportation is responsible for an increasing share of global greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions. Consequently, it plays a central role in fighting climate change and major human health challenges, as well as reducing the associated societal costs. This dissertation investigates the preferences of German private households when making their vehicle purchase decisions - i.e. choices of a specific fuel type or propulsion technology and a specific body type - and primarily discusses the measures needed to increase the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), explicitly taking car buyers’ preference heterogeneity into account. For this purpose, actual and hypothetical vehicle purchases of recent or potential future buyers of new passenger cars are assessed in three distinct but interrelated parts. Based on data gathered in a nationwide survey and by applying various specifications of logistic regression models, willingness-to-pay values for vehicle attribute improvements are calculated, and future market shares of different AFVs are predicted for a broad range of possible technical improvements or policy actions in a scenario analysis. Building upon these results, recommendations are derived in order to support decision-makers in creating tailored and economically viable products, marketing and communication strategies, or policy measures to encourage car buyers’ body type shifting (e.g. from larger to smaller vehicles), fuel type switching (e.g. from fossil-fueled vehicles to AFVs), or both.

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